A results page is a list of closed trades. To turn it into an expectation for your account you need three numbers, and win rate is not one of them on its own.
The three numbers
1. Win rate, with its counts. 96% is meaningless without "of 79". Twenty trades at 96% is noise; a few hundred is a pattern. Our results page shows the counts alongside the rate, and the 30 days to 21 September 2026 replayed as 79 resolved signals, 96% reaching TP1, 3 stops. Note that "reached TP1" is not "reached the target you would have used": on the same month a hold-to-TP3 rule won 77%, because some TP1 hits reversed to the original stop.
2. Average win in pips against average loss in pips. A service whose average win is 20 pips and average loss is 80 pips needs to win four out of five just to break even, before spreads. This is where high win rates hide losing strategies: small targets, wide stops, and a rate in the nineties that produces a flat account. Read the average stop distance and the average distance to the target that was actually reached, not TP3.
3. Expectancy. (Win rate × average win) minus (loss rate × average loss). That is the number of pips you should expect per signal over many signals. Positive expectancy with a 55% win rate beats negative expectancy at 90% every month of the year.
Everything else on a results page (monthly pips, best trade, streaks) is derived from those three or is decoration.
Where the three numbers hide on a results page
Most pages show only the first. To get the other two:
- Filter to a full month. Count wins, losses and breakevens.
- For each win, note the target reached (TP1, TP2 or TP3) and its distance from entry. Average them.
- For each loss, note the stop distance. Average them.
- Compute expectancy.
On our page the backtester does this for any date range and applies a take-profit rule of your choice (TP1 exit, TP2 exit, TP3 exit), because the average win depends on which target you close at. The take profit guide explains why that rule moves the result more than the signals do.
How breakevens change the read
A breakeven on our record is a trade the desk closed at its entry price and recorded as 0. It is counted as a win in the win rate, because the first target had been reached or the desk chose to end the trade flat, and the verify page states the convention. Note what the record does not do: if price reached TP1 and then drifted back through entry with no close, the record keeps TP1. When you compute expectancy, treat breakevens as their own category at 0 pips. They lower the average win without being losses, and a record with many of them and a high win rate is a record of small, frequent, unremarkable trades. Not bad, but not what the headline rate suggests.
Turning pips into money
Pips are the record's unit because they are the same for everyone. Money depends on your sizing, so convert with your own numbers:
- Fixed lots. Pips × pip value per lot × lots. At 0.10 lots on EUR/USD, one pip is $1; a +40-pip month is +$40. Gold at 0.10 lots is also $1 a pip in our convention (one pip is $0.10 of price).
- Risk per trade. Better, and it has to be done trade by trade. For each signal, divide its result in pips by its own stop distance in pips. That is the trade's R: +2R means it made twice what it risked, -1R is a full stop, 0R is a breakeven. Add the R values up for the month. Because the copier's Risk % mode sizes every trade from its own stop, R is the unit your account actually moves in.
Two trades show why the shortcut of dividing total pips by an average stop is wrong: a +100-pip win with a 100-pip stop is +1R; a 10-pip loss with a 10-pip stop is -1R. Together they are 0R, a flat month. Total pips divided by the average stop would call it +90 ÷ 55, about +1.6R, on a month that made nothing. Pips only mean something next to the stop of the trade that produced them, which is why a provider quoting pips without stop distances is quoting half a number.
To turn a month's R into a percentage: at a fixed risk fraction r of the starting balance, the month is r × total R (1% risk and +6R is +6%). If you resize every trade from the current balance, compound instead: multiply (1 + r × R) across the trades in order; two +1R wins at 1% come to +2.01%, slightly more than the simple figure, and a losing run comes to slightly less. Both are models with assumptions built in: one trade at a time, sized at entry, filled at the signal's prices. Trades that overlap in time change what each one was sized from, and spread and slippage change every fill, so the figure your account shows is the only real one. Use the model to compare rules and providers, not to forecast a balance.
Reading our page in five minutes
- Open the results page and choose last month.
- Read the counts, not the rate: signals posted, stops hit.
- Open the backtester for the same month with the exit level you would actually use. Remember what it is: the record re-cut by exit level, not a replay, so a trade that reached TP1 and reversed counts at TP1 there even if a live TP3 holder would have taken the stop.
- For each signal, divide its pips by its stop distance and add the R values up. Ten signals is enough to see the shape; the whole month is better. The month's export gives you each signal's result; the stop distance for each one is on the results page, and you need both.
- Multiply the total R by your risk per trade. That is the month under the model's assumptions (one trade at a time, sized at entry, filled at the signal's prices), not a forecast of an account.
If step 5 is a number you would be happy with in a normal month and could survive in a bad one at the same sizing, the record is telling you something useful. If you skipped straight to the win rate, it told you nothing.
See the signals before you pay for anything
Every closed VIP signal is on the results page with its entry, stop, targets and outcome, losses included. The free channel posts a selection each week.