What gold does on NFP, CPI and Fed days, minute by minute

The sample from 26 March to 25 September 2026 holds sixteen US releases: six jobs reports (the Employment Situation, known as NFP), six inflation reports (CPI) and four Federal Reserve decisions. The first jobs report fell on Good Friday, 3 April, when the sample has no gold prices, so fifteen releases have figures: five NFP, six CPI and four Fed.

Each release is measured from its own minute, 13:30 UK for NFP and CPI and 19:00 UK for the Fed, and compared with the same New York minutes on the trading days that had none of the sixteen. Four to six releases of a kind is a small sample, so read every figure below with its count beside it.

The first minutes after a release

Median range in pips over the first 1, 5, 15 and 60 minutes from the release minute:

In the first minute after an NFP release, the median range was 442.3 pips, more than ten times the 41.1 pips of the same minute on other days. CPI was close behind at 420.6. After 7 of the 11 NFP and CPI releases, the first minute alone covered more than half of the first hour's range.

Fed decisions built more slowly. The median first minute was 370.6 pips, but the first hour reached 890.7, against 133.8 on other days, and the first minute covered more than half of the hour after only one of the four decisions. The press conference begins half an hour after the statement, at 19:30 UK, inside that hour.

Release days were wider from start to finish

The median NFP day covered 1,256.7 pips, the median CPI day 1,154.3 and the median Fed day 1,268.2, against 928.0 on the other 115 days. Not every release day was a big one. Three of the fifteen, NFP on 8 May (679.3 pips) and CPI on 10 April (647.2) and 12 August (791.0), were narrower than the median of the other days, and none of the five widest days in the sample held one of the sixteen releases.

Up or down: the direction was mixed

A release told you to expect a wide range. It did not tell you which way. Fifteen minutes after the release, gold was higher after ten of the fifteen and lower after five, and in four of them the first minute had pointed the other way. All figures in pips; a move is the change from the last price before the release, with plus for higher.

All six CPI releases showed a rise at the fifteen-minute mark, but three of those six had been falls after one minute, and an hour after the release two of the six were lower again. With four to six releases of each kind, these counts describe six months; they are not a rule for the next release.

Trading gold around a release

Check the calendar before any gold entry. For most of the year the jobs and inflation figures land at 13:30 UK and Fed statements at 19:00. In the week of 25 to 31 October 2026 they come an hour earlier, because the UK has changed its clocks and the US has not: the Fed statement on 28 October is due at 18:00 UK. Forex market hours in UK time sets out that week.

Stops. A stop becomes a market order when the price reaches it. If gold jumps past the level, as it can in a minute that covers 442.3 pips, the fill comes at the next price available, which can be well past the level, not at the price you typed; slippage in forex explains why.

Pending orders. A buy stop or sell stop near the price can be triggered by the first spike and filled with slippage, and in four of these fifteen releases the direction at fifteen minutes was the opposite of the first minute's. A limit order cannot fill worse than its price, but a spike can fill it on the way to going further.

Spread. Our figures come from one price with no bid and ask. At a broker the spread widens around releases, so trading in the first minutes costs more than a chart of one price suggests. The sessions and news guide covers what a release does to a signal that is already open.

Decide before the number. Leave an open trade to its stop and targets, or close it before the release, but choose beforehand. A new gold entry posted in the last minutes before a release is one to skip, whoever posts it. Our closed signals, stops included, are on the results page.

Where the numbers come from

Release dates come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics release archives, with jobs and inflation figures at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, and from the Federal Reserve's 2026 meeting calendar, with statements at 2:00 p.m. Each window starts at the release minute. Its range is the high minus the low inside it, and its move runs from the last one-minute close before the release to the close at the end of the window. Other days are the same New York minutes on every full trading day with none of the sixteen releases: 115 days from 08:30 and 114 from 14:00, or 113 for its 15-minute window, because a day counts only when the window has enough one-minute bars.

One-minute prices: GetData free sample, MIT licence, 26 March to 25 September 2026, grouped into 130 trading days of 17:00 to 17:00 New York time. The first minute after each weekend, daily break or other pause of more than five minutes is left out of highs and lows, because its opening price is carried over from before the pause. Typical values are medians, and a gold pip is $0.10 of price. More on the method is on the markets page, and gold's other figures on XAU/USD.