How the chance is worked out
The calculator goes through the trades one at a time, carrying forward the probability of each possible length of the current losing run: a win resets the run to zero and a loss adds one. The moment a run reaches your length, that path is counted once and set aside. The result is the exact chance of at least one such run somewhere in the trades, not an estimate from a simulation. The expected longest run comes from the same counting: the chance of a run of at least one loss, plus the chance of at least two, and so on.
A worked example
The values loaded here are a 50% win rate, 100 trades and a run of 5. The chance of at least one run of 5 or more losses in a row is 81.0%, and the expected longest losing run is 6.0. A run of 10 or more still has a 4.4% chance over the same 100 trades. At a 60% win rate the chance of a run of 5 falls to 45.9%, and at 40% it rises to 97.6%.
Why long runs are likelier than they feel
Five losses in a row at a 50% win rate have a 3.1% chance in any given five trades. But 100 trades hold 96 overlapping stretches of five, so somewhere among them a run becomes likely. The expected longest run grows slowly with the number of trades: at 50% it is 5.0 over 50 trades, 6.0 over 100, 7.0 over 200 and 8.0 over 400.
These odds assume independent trades
The maths gives every trade the same win rate and makes it independent of the last one. Real trades can cluster: signals on correlated pairs can share one move, so a single day can stop out several of them, and a strategy can go through stretches when it suits the market less. Runs can then come longer and more often than these odds say.
Which win rate to use
The calculator starts at 50%, a coin flip, as a neutral example. Use a win rate you can count, from your own journal over many trades or a provider’s record with its losses shown, and try a lower one too: a past win rate describes what happened, not what the next 100 trades will bring. Our own record is on the results page, stops included. To see what a run would cost at your risk per trade, take its length to the drawdown calculator; the losing streaks guide covers what helps while one lasts.
Questions
How likely is a losing streak of 5 trades?
It depends on the win rate and on how many trades you count. At a 50% win rate, at least one run of 5 or more losses has an 81.0% chance over 100 trades and 25.0% over 20 trades. At 60% the 100-trade figure is 45.9%.
What is the longest losing streak to expect?
At a 50% win rate the expected longest run of losses is 6.0 over 100 trades and 7.0 over 200. A lower win rate makes it longer: at 40% it is 7.9 over 100 trades.
Does a losing streak mean a strategy has stopped working?
Not on its own. A run within the odds for the win rate is ordinary variance. A run far outside them, or stop sizes and a win rate that have moved away from the published history, is a reason to stop and review; the losing streaks guide sets out when.
Are the odds exact?
Yes, for independent trades with a fixed win rate: the calculator counts every way the trades can fall instead of sampling them. Real trades can cluster, so read the figures as what chance alone produces.
Every closed signal is on the record
The results page lists each closed VIP signal with its entry, stop, targets and outcome, stops included.
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